jackconaty's Blog

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For many people in Chicago, this must all seem a bit confusing. A state with fewer voters than the City of Chicago...and only about six per cent of them at best...get to make the first major statement in the race for the white house in 2008. And quite a statement it may be.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is going to do well here...much better than it appeared even four weeks ago...and if the polls are accuarate...but they seldom are...he might even win.

At this posting, he's confident he will do well and it appears former frontrunner Hillary Clinton could finish a disappointing third behind Obama and former Senator John edwards.

Why? the message that sells here is "change" and that's been Obama's mantra since day one of his campaign. It's been more difficult for Clinton to sell experience when she's being attacked as a Washington insider - but the Obama people are still very worried about turn-out...who will show up and who will not.

If history is prologue younger voters stay away from the caucuses and that could happen again. on the Republican side former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has had a couple of tough weeks here since becoming the GOP frontrunner but his core supporters, conservative christian evangelicals are reliable on caucus night.

His primary challenger, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has spent a small fortune out here but negativity (which he peddles in his ads) seldom plays well on caucus night.

Surging Senator John McCain could surprise some people with a third place finish here, where he has barely campaigned at all and it could be over for former actor turned presidential candidate fred thompson if he finishes in fourth place.

What will turn-out look like? it will be very cold here with temperatures (including wind chill) in single digits but no snow is forecast. As many as 160,000 Democrats and as many as 90,000 Republicans may show up.

Is all of this too important based on too small and unrepresentative a sample size?

Probably, but Iowa is a "scene setter"; and winners here can get a boost in New Hampshire next week. That has always been the Obama strategy and its clear to me that Hillary Clinton's appearance on the "Late Show with David Letterman" was her campaign's way of letting the rest of the country know its alright to ignore what happens here tonight.

But the media won't and campaign contributors certainly won't. Iowa matters...just ask Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and maybe even Rudy Giuliani. winning in Iowa won't make you President, but losing badly here almost insures you will never make the White House.

We'll have the winners and the losers on Fox News Chicago after the game and live reports from Iowa on Good Day Chicago tomorrow. stay turned.