Andrei_WX's Blog

Growing concerns from the impact of residence and oil rigs along the Gulf due to tropical storm Gustav. Gustav is now gaining strength out in the Carribeans with sustained winds at 70 mph with wind gust up to 85 mph. The storm is continuing to move westward and is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico sometime Monday. Forecasters are predicting that ustav will become a Cat 1 sometime tomorrow an is expected to reach upwards to a Cat 3 status sometime on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Tropical storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic. The latest is winds at 40 mph with higher gust. Hanna has the potential to become our 4th hurricane of the season as early as tomorrow.

Potential heat wave this weekend into next week. A large area of high pressure in the four corners will shift eastweard over the southern plains this weekend into early next week. Places in the midwest and eastern seaboard could see the warmest temperatures yet. The mercury starts to climb for us in Chicago starting Friday and continues through Monday. With plenty of humidity, heat indices could reach triple digits. The latest models have Monday as our warmest in which we could see highs in the mid 90s with heat inices close to 100. Overall across the region, temperatures wil range from 95-100 with heat indices as high as 110 in some spots. The threat for severe weather Friday as a wave riding along the eastern side of ridge comes down from Minnesota/Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns.

Friday- Hot and Humid, Scattered Thunderstorms (possibly severe)!!!

Hi: 87

Lo: 68

Saturday- Lake Breeze

Hi: 85

Lo: 67

Sunday-  Very Warm, Afternoon/Evening Storms

Hi: 90

Lo: 74

Monday- Possibly Hottest day of the Summer!!!!

Hi: 95

Lo: 71

Tuesday- Storms Likely!!

Hi: 91

Lo: 68

Right now it looks like Saturday will be the driest and thus the winner of the two days as high pressure just cant quite lose its grip over the Great Lakes. Sunday, we have a slight chance for storms (most of which will be isolated). This what we call "MCS -Multi-Cluster System or Nocturnal cluster of storms" likes to ride along the jet stream and develops when there is a good low level jet coming from the south. This has been the story across the plains the past couple of days and as this high pressure pushes eastward, we will be on the edge of that jet stream. As far as timing of storms, the best chance will be during the morning hours and leftovers of storms coming down from Wisconsin overnight Saturday. Sunday will not be a complete washout.

Saturday

Dry!! Partly cloudy for most of the day!

HI: 88

Lo: 67

Sunday

Isolated chance for storms early especially north!

Hi: 80

Lo: 64

Hurricane Dolly makes landfall as a Cat. 2 with winds up to 100 mph. This is the first storm of the season to hit the U.S. coast (just north of Brownsville, TX). Eventhough Dolly has weakened to a Cat 1 with top winds upwards to 95 mph, it has somewhat stalled along the coast threatening many with the potential of major flooding. Many are concerned that the levees that hold together the Rio Grande is not going to able to withstand the flood waters expected. NOAA predicts up to a foot of rain to fall by Friday morning in southern Texas. Brownsville is the city under greatest risk for flood waters. Heres the projected path and timeframe of where the storm is headed!!

Hurricane Bertha now a tropical storm has been a record setter. The first storm to form farthest to the east (closest to the coast of Africa) and the second longest lived storm at 13 days and counting.

The heart of summer is upon us and we welcome it with its warm and dry conditions. The past couple of days we have had temperatures around normal. Yesterday, today, and the next couple of days highs will be slightly above normal with highs in the 90s. Combined with the humidity, heat indices are expected to reach the upper 90s and maybe even a few 100s in some spots. An air quality alert is in effect for the area the next couple of days as there is an increase in ozone levels. If you have any respiratiory problems, you may want to take it easy for the next few days. Keep posted to myfoxchicago weather blog!!!

Strong thunderstorms on the other side of Lake Michigan around St. Joseph harbor caused a seiche with waves along the eastern shore more than 15 feet. This resulted in a drop in levels on the eastern side of the lake earlier this afternoon around 3:30pm causing the levels on our side of the lake to rise as much as 2 feet. The storms that moved over Lake Michigan died out. Downdrafts from the storm caused waves to ripple toward the lake shores. This causes an oscillation and drop in levels for several hours. The best example is in a bathtub when you a rush of water on one side of the tube causes a seesaw effect. The link below best describes a seiche.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche

Lightning Awareness Week is this week everyone! June 22-28th. June and July are the peak months for lightning storms in Illinois and much of the Midwest. Here is a link to follow what to do when in a lightning storm:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080623_l
ightning.html

An area of high pressure is off to the east and an area of low pressure is located in the Dakotas. In between the two systems, ample moisture is being sucked up from the Gulf of Mexico. A warm front has moved thru Chicago and temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s for the next couple of days with dewpoint values in the upper 60s. However, this will cause the atmosphere to become quite unstable during this timeframe. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the northern Illinois area. Some of these storms could reach severe limits with damaging winds and hail. In addition, because the atmosphere is so juicy, these storms will have heavy rain potential with them.

A large area of high pressure is currently in place and dominant across much of the midwest. Sinking air motion and northwesterly winds has helped to give us a much needed break from storms for at least the next couple of days. Temperatures for today will remain slightly below normal for this time of year. Dewpoints are currently in the lower to mid 50s. Winds are NNE so temperatures lakefront will be cooler than the rest of the area by 5-10 degrees. Lower 70s along the lake and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Our next chance for seeing rain will come Friday and Saturday as the atmosphere will become quite unstabe and a  low pressure system currently over New England is expected to retrograde westward. The storms that do form aren't expected to be severe as there upper level support and wind shear will not be strong. For next week, we will gradually climb to normal and even slightly above norm by mid week as we get on the back side of high pressure.