AmyFreeze's Blog

Weather Watcher Adan sent in this photo of the Moon, Jupiter and Venus, this shot is looking southward right after sunset today. Since the sky is so clear tonight I decided to take a clear photo before the clouds start to roll in again.

Great shot Adan!  Thanks for sending it in!  - Amy Freeze

As of Monday evening, the seasonal snowfall total in South Bend is 20.2". This is the 4th snowiest start to a winter on record. Only three others had more snow through December 1. Here are those years and the snowfall for the season... their winters ended up exceptionally snowy!!!

            Year                Snow as        Seasonal

                                    of 12/1            snow total

         -------------------------------------------------------

            1989               24.0"               73.0"

            1977               38.2"               172.0"

            1976               24.3"               129.2"

            Average=============    124.7"

Send in your snow photos from NW Indiana to graphics@foxchicago.com

AMY FREEZE

WINTER FORECAST 2008-2009

Just like clockwork, on the first meteorological day of winter, Chicagoland got blanketed with snow. 

During the past several weeks, cold air has arrived from Canada, and we have already been clipped with a few surges of sub freezing air. But is this early season cold and snow is likely a sign of the winter ahead. 

Last winter had a mild start.. but a cold finish.  The winter months last year were active with small but potent storms delivering 60" of annual snowfall at O'Hare.  This winter, the science suggests that another cold, wet winter lies ahead.  I looked at:    sea surface temperatures, seasonal trends and prevailing storm patterns to create this forecast. 

First, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean... these patterns are valuable for long-range forecasting.  For example, La Nina, colder than normal ocean temperatures,  had a big impact on last winter and our summer weather--  but La Nina is turning into la nada... the ocean temperatures that give us clues to the winter are forecast to disappear -- which makes this winter's forecast exceptionally challenging.  

I looked for similar years to what's happening now ---  where the la nina was strong then faded.    these were years coming off la nina into a neutral winter                               25.5  average temp   28"average snow

1950-1951             23.5      40.1"

1985-1986              21.3     23"

1989-1990              27.5     22"

1996-1997             25.3      35.8"

These examples tended to produce colder than normal temperatures but the snow amounts were highly variable to 22" one year, more than 40"  in another.  

Next, i turned to recent climate patterns --- the SEASONAL TRENDS... because current research (Journal of Climate) shows that the previous seasons give clues for winter weather ahead.  Last winter and this summer in Chicago both had near normal temperatures and both were wetter than average. This autumn both october and november were colder than average...  but both were also below average for precipitation... October    -.5  degrees below average,  -.64" in average rainfall.  November was  -.2 degrees below average and -1.7" in rainfall. 

The final piece of science suggests snow is coming.  The evidence is found in the prevailing storm patterns.  Current storm patterns suggest the jet stream is shifting to where the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south will be right over chicago. 

This is an ideal set up for active Winter.  It's a pattern brings storms out of Canada and drags them over chicago--- we call them "Clippers" because they bring quick doses of snow --- but these events will also re-enforce the Cold Air intrusion across the Midwest.

My call for this winter is Cold and Wet.

25.5 degrees is average temperature in Chicago for Dec thru Feb 

My forecast:  21 to 23 degrees with December being the coldest, January the most mild.

28" of snow is the average snowfall for Chicago Dec. thru Feb.  It won't be as snowy as last winter but my forecast is above average snowfall: 32 to 38 inches

Finally - it's not an official disclaimer but it's something important to note.  The confidence is not as high in this winter forecast because there are no definitive long term controlling patterns like a La Nina. But the average date of 1" or more of accumulating snow in Chicago is december 4th... we've already hit that mark early and a bitter chill is coming our way this week.

Click here to compare my forecast to Climate Predication Center's Winter Outlook!

"Flying" through the Holidays in Any Kind of Weather

There are some amazing sites to track air travel... they are at the end of this blog and you should definitely bookmark them!  

 I hate to admit the story I'm about to write down. But it's one of those airport mishaps that you can laugh at.... especially if it did not happen to you!   I was living on the East Coast where every city is "close to the Big Apple." 

In Philadelphia, you can be in Times Square in an hour and a half... so I agreed that New York was a viable option for my parents to fly into from Salt Lake City for a visit with me in Philly.  They could come to a New York airport... instead of Philadelphia... saving about $150 per ticket.  Plus, I would drive up and take them into NYC after they arrived.  Great plan.  

I arrived at the airport... we connected via cell phone... My Dad told me they were at the Arrivals of American Airlines... waiting by the curb. 

I drove through, did not see them.  I had to do "the loop" and called him back.  "Where are you?"  We thought we had figured it out... 45 minutes later and 4 loops around the airport.... I said "Dad ask an agent or security person which part of the airport...." 

We double, triple checked... He was at arrivals... He was at American... he was at Door 6... I was at the same landmarks... WE STILL COULD FIND EACH OTHER!   I was just about to park when I hear the officer say, "Sir, you are at Newark,"   L O N G  P A U S E.

"Dad. I'm at JFK."  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Another hour and a half drive, finally I picked my folks up!  I have no way to explain how this happened other than I said fly in NY and the airline probably just gave the best price to Newark which is close the city... yadda yadda...  

 Anyway.  All kinds of things can happen when you pick up relatives from the airport.  And yes, even when all the communication is perfect.... the weather will ruin the best laid plans... so here's a way to track your flights this holiday season...  Best wishes for your on time arrivals... I'll be picking my folks up at Midway... or was it O'Hare?   

Track Any Flight and the Weather  Click here to track any flight!

Check activity of flights going and coming at O'hare Click here to check airport activity!

Monitor Airport Delays Click here to monitor delays!

Here's another press release with reminders on how to get yourself ready for the winter weather approaching!  Meteorologist Amy Freeze

Winter Safety Tips for Home and Vehicle IEMA, NWS urge people to prepare for winter weather during Winter Storm Preparedness Week

Nov. 16-22 SPRINGFIELD – While winter doesn’t officially start until Dec. 21, recent weather history shows that treacherous winter weather often starts much earlier in Illinois. In late November 2006, a massive ice and snow storm swept through much of the state, and left thousands of homes without electricity for several days. On the day before Thanksgiving 2004, heavy snow caused hazardous driving conditions for thousands of holiday travelers, many of whom were stranded along the roadside for several hours.

During Winter Storm Preparedness Week Nov. 16-22, the Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) are offering several tips on how people can prepare for dangerous winter weather. “Over the past few winters, Illinois has seen more than its fair share of severe ice storms and record snowfalls,” said IEMA Director Andrew Velasquez. “Winter weather can be dangerous, sometimes even deadly. Just a few minutes of preparation today can keep you and your family safe when winter weather strikes.” According to the NWS, Illinois experiences an average of five severe winter storms each year. However, during the winter of 2007-08, there were 16 severe winter storms, five of which impacted one third or more of the state. While most winters aren’t that severe, there has not been a winter in Illinois without a major winter storm in the past century. Home preparedness A basic home preparedness kit can help you get through winter storms and other emergencies throughout the year. Because a major storm could strand people in their homes and prevent emergency personnel from reaching them for several days, everyone should be prepared to be self-sustaining for at least three days. Items in the preparedness kit should include: • Three-day supply of non-perishable food, including high energy foods such as dried fruit and candy • Bottled water (one gallon per family member per day for three days) • Battery-operated radio, NOAA weather radio and extra batteries • Flashlight and extra batteries • First aid kit • Extra medications and special items for babies, the disabled and the elderly When winter storms cause the power to go out, it’s important to ensure that fireplaces, wood-burning stoves, generators and other emergency heating or cooking equipment are properly vented to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Vehicle preparedness Before setting out on a trip, check the latest weather conditions along your travel route and make sure tires, wipers, and lights are in good condition.

Start your trip with a full tank of gas, provide your itinerary to a friend, relative or co-worker, and if possible, travel during daylight hours on main roads. While on the road, be prepared to turn back and seek shelter if conditions become threatening. Keep windows clear of snow and ice and adjust speed for road conditions. Now is the time to equip your car with a winter car survival kit stocked with items that can keep you safe and warm if you should become stranded alongside a road. A car survival kit should include the following: • Cell phone and charger • First aid kit • Water and high-calorie, non-perishable food • Boots, hats, gloves and extra clothing to keep dry • Blanket • Crank radio and flashlight • Sack of sand or cat litter • Shovel • Windshield scraper and brush • Tool kit and tow rope • Booster cables • Compass and road maps

To learn more about winter preparedness, IEMA, NWS and the American Red Cross developed a Winter Storm Preparedness Guide, which is available on the IEMA website at www.ready.illinois.gov or by calling (217) 785-9888.

The guide includes many more tips on how to stay safe in your home and car, as well as information about winter weather terms, frostbite and hypothermia. For more information about energy assistance and weatherization tips through the Governor’s Keep Warm Illinois campaign, visit www.keepwarm.illinois or call toll-free 1-877-411-WARM.

 WINTER PREPAREDNESS

Nov. 16th through 21st the National Weather Service in Chicago has declared as WINTER PREPAREDNESS week.  There are simple, common sense steps to take before the winter turns bitter cold... taking care of cars, yard work, changing heater filters, getting salt and shovels in place, making sure your gloves and windshield wipers are where they need to be... and so on!  But here's something brand new for this year... the wording being used for potential winter storms approaching Chicago.

The National Weather Service has simplified the winter weather headlines for this year. The generic term "Winter Storm Warning" will be used in place of the specific headlines "Heavy Snow Warning" and "Sleet Warning". Winter Storm Warning will also be used for events where there is a combination of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and/or wind. The specific headlines "Lake Effect Snow Warning", "Ice Storm Warning", and Blizzard Warning" will remain. 

The information on a Winter Storm will still come to you urgently via messages on your tv set, online at MyFoxChicago.com, via email if you are registered for Free WEATHERWATCH emails.  Watch weather anytime on Live Power Doppler.   Meteorologist Amy Freeze

 Click here to download your own Winter Preparedness Guide! 

OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR______ NEWS OD R. BLAGOJEVICH – GOVERNOR

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 

R

FOX CHICAGO NEWS AT NINE

We took this photo about a month ago...   behind the scenes we were laughing up a storm... and went for lunch afterwards at Club Lucky (a huge pre-game hangout for Hawk fans... and their food is dang good too!)

Here are a few of my favorite things behind the scenes at Fox:

Robin and Jeff and their sugar addictions-- they love LOVE love candy which is a huge bonus if you are their co-worker!

Cory and his high-fives---  he's always in a good mood... but don't ask him to cover for you... he cannot tell a lie!

I can tell you these guys are just as nice and comfortable to be around as they are to watch on tv everynight! 

I'm so lucky to be on their team!

Fox Chicago is the

Official Home of the Chicago Bears

So far this season, it's been beautiful football weather.... the pre-season games were 80 degrees.   The regular season games at Soldier Field for the Bears have averaged above 70 degrees!   Temperatures easy to take and precipitation hard to find!   Next week, the forecast is calling for a big cool down... so our luck with fair weather may have run out!   I am on the field during the Bears game to do live forecasts with Live Power Doppler on the JumboTron. 

THE COLDEST GAME OF THE SEASON SO FAR THIS WEEKEND AGAINST THE TITANS!

Forecast for This Sunday -- Mostly Cloudy and Cold, High of 43 degrees!!!  Don't be shocked if there is a flurry!

Chicago Bears Photographer Bill Smith took this photo when the Bears beat the Vikings!

Two great schools out in Des Plaines invited me out to talk about the weather.  These communities - including many of the students were affected by the September Floods that brought the Des Plaines River to record levels.  The students asked great questions about the weather patterns that lead to the flooding.  We talked about Live Power Doppler and the technology advances for tracking severe weather... and of course, they wanted to know if it's my real last name!!  The teachers and students and principals were all very nice  - and the questions were great!  Here are the pictures we shared on Tonight on the News at Nine.

THANK YOU CUMBERLAND ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

THANK YOU CENTRAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL

FOX CHICAGO WEATHERWATCH

Fall Colors are in Full Swing.. plan your trip now for the weekend!  Whether you go to Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, or right here in Chicago... the colors are amazing.

Click here for The Wisconsin Full Color Report!  The Fall Color Report is available to travelers on travelwisconsin.com or by calling 1-800-432-TRIP/8747.

Click here for The Morton Arboretum!

The Morton Arboretum
4100 Illinois Route 53
Lisle, IL 60532-1293

East Side of Arboretum with Ash Tree surrounded by shurbs

Sour Gum Tree

Hellebore leaves

Oak Park Parks and Recreation Department Teaches Kids About the Weather

I spent part of Columbus Day with students from all over Oak Park who wanted to learn more about TV and forecasting.  They ask great questions about the key wall, how storms form, and yes... we even did the tornado dance!

Meteorologist Amy Freeze

Teacher and Lego Robotics Coach Ryan Eckart from Wallace Elementary School in Hammond, Indiana brought his students in to get a tour of Fox Chicago on Monday night!  We had a great time talking about the climate... we decided some of the top issues for Chicago's climate were water and trees!  Good luck in your competition coming up in November!

WEATHER AFFECTS BASEBALL...the pitch, the direction of the ball, the speed of the all, where a fan might catch a homerun, how players perform...

Gone are the hot days of fun in the sun at the Cell and Wrigley... but really... it could be a blizzard and it wouldn't matter because both Chicago teams are still alive down the stretch!   But actually, the weather does have an affect on baseball... the player, the swing, the flight of the ball after contact, the pitch, and of course, the fans!  Weather has an undeniable affect on America's favorite past time... but since you can't control it... you're only option is to try and figure it out!

NASA knows that the flight of an object is affected by it's atmosphere... a scientist studying this has a computer baseball simulator that they use to do studies... I asked him to add Chicago as a location to his online experiment... here's the link. Click here to try NASA's BASEBALL MODELER! 

Prevailing winds have an influence on the flight of a ball. A fastball thrown at 90 mph into a 10 mph wind would have a ground speed of about 89.3 mph,  If the ball is thrown downwind, it would be about 90.7 mph.   A 10 mph crosswind will blow a fastball off its path by about three inches.  The stronger the wind, the greater the impact.

How much could a breeze or gust matter?   Even a small deflection can mean the difference between a ball and a strike, or a strike and a home run. A Harvard professor wrote about this concept in his book "The Physics of Baseball."   A crosswind has an even greater effect on slower pitches like curveballs and knuckleballs. Not to mention the pitcher himself. Remember when Giants pitcher Stu Miller was supposedly ``blown off'' the pitching mound during the 1961 All-Star game at Candlestick Park?  The pitcher moved, the umpire called a ball which let the runners to advance in the ninth inning and tie the score.  Mother Nature might have been the 10th man that day!

The winds also affect a baseball’s path. When the Philadelphia Phillies moved from Veterans Stadium into Citizens Bank Park in 2004, they noticed that it was more “home-run friendly” than their former home.  The Vet was totally enclosed... but now winds swirled through Citizens Bank Park. In Philadelphia, the prevailing southwest and south winds of summer blow directly out to center and right-center fields. When Citizens Bank Park was being constructed, the Phillies hired a Canadian engineering firm to study the air-flow patterns so that the prevailing winds would benefit hitters.  The study also noted that Citizens Bank Park is closer to the confluence of the Schuylkill and Delaware Rivers, which could make the winds stronger and the air more humid. 

A pitched ball can be impacted by the weather, though somewhat less dramatically. Again, it's a matter of air density and how much friction the ball encounters. When the air is less dense, a pitcher's fastball would be slightly faster but his curveball wouldn't bite into the air as much and would be less effective.

Temperatures can also affect the ball -- but also the fans.. I was working at a Phillies game where a dozen fans were taken into the hospital for heat exhaustion... I asked Jim Thome (he was still a Philly then) about the weather and he said the players were not affected,  "It's never too hot for baseball."

Winds at the Cell and Wrigley can affect play... some might argue... sure the weather has an effect, but both teams have to deal with the same weather?!   Tonight at the Cell the winds will be gusting strong out of the Northwest which should help the batters... Tomorrow night at Wriglet the winds will be moderate out of the North which could prevent left field homeruns.  Go Chicago baseball... and may Mother Nature be on our side!

Meteorologist Amy Freeze

Saturday, September 20, 2008

11 a.m. to 2 p.m.